Note that I use not the official latest mortality rate (3.4% by WHO) ⁸ but the one I calculated on 16 thMarch (3.7% based data) ⁵ — the date I wrote this article. The current trend is upwards as the mortality rate keeps rising form an initial 2%. ⁵
Comparison of the Coronaviruses
As you can see, the transmission potential (r0) of the virus (SARS-CoV-2), responsible for the current COVID-19 outbreak, is very comparable to previous outbreaks of other coronaviruses. ¹ ⁴ ¹⁰ Note that MERS-CoV r0 is higher but the data is taken from South Korea — the same country which notoriously tests way more people even during the current outbreak. The incubation period falls into similar lines as well.
The main difference is the mortality rate and the total numbers. ⁵ The spread of the virus could be hypothetically blamed for the rise of middle-class tourism but it is harder to judge the difference of the mortality rate. ² ³ ⁵ It could be that at the end of the day it will be more similar to CoV-SARS 2003, or that we have tested way more people right now.
Learning from the Past
You might be thinking that this comparison is pointless. The COVID-19 outbreak is way more serious than either SARS or MERS but the point of this infographics is to show that this virus is not something we haven’t seen before. What we have haven’t seen before is the current all-out panic.
The world was nowhere close to the end in 2009 when from 151,700 to 575,400 people died from the H1N1 influenza virus ⁷ and it is not going to end now. Either number of these casualties dwarf all the coronaviruses combined so far. Stop dramatizing the current situation, it is not like we are facing an unseen obstacle. Instead, for some reason, we don’t have the nerves to face anything serious.
The Outbreak of Panic
Thanks to media and social networks, the panic spreads way faster than the virus itself. What is required now is cold blood and rational thinking. That applies especially to the citizens of countries locked-downed in their homes, I am one of those people. We have to stop panicking because it causes more damage than coronavirus disease.
The Future is in Our
Spreading bullshit information could have grave consequences and it is only a question of time until the blame game is going to start. There is nobody else to blame but us — the people, and mostly the internet users. Take the responsibility for the current situation and stop spreading the chaos, we are fine.
As I wrote down three weeks before for a never-released-older-version-of-this-coronavirus-infographic:
“…Let the time be the judge but currently, the biggest blow will be dealt to economics (except 4 thestate)…”
Never forget who profits from what.
While We Wait for Medication..
…it might never come. As to this date, there is no cure to CoVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2) as well as to SARS-CoV which caused the outbreak in 2003.⁹ What is known is that the virus spreads quickly and hits the elderly or people with a weak immune system the most. The good news is if you are under 40 the mortality rate is only 1 out of 500 and that statistics is probably half as small if you are a woman. ⁶
While we cannot cure this disease we can boost our natural defense against it. In a couple of days, I’ll try to share a few ways of how you can improve your immune system at home.
Originally published at https://ctdots.eu on March 16, 2020.