Variation of Mortality Rate

The current CoVID-19 statistics doesn‘t really add up. The early mortality rate estimates of coronavirus disease were 2%² but in 3th of March World Health Organization announced that it is 3.4%.¹ Based on 18th March statistics, globally, and in Wuhan separately, CoVID-19 mortality rate is around 4%, while in Italy it is over 8%.² Why the difference?

The simplest answer would be that there are way more infected people than it is detected. It might sound like bad news but actually it is not. It either means that not all of us are infected and those who are — don‘t feel any symptoms.

Even if there are more people infected than these hypothetical numbers, it would only mean that the mortality rate is actually way lower than the provided estimates.

The Positive

The most optimistic conclusion of the data is that countries like Germany or Switzerland, capable of dealing with the anschlag of patients, have lower mortality rates than the estimates. This should only encourage us to stay at home, keeping the infected cases as low as possible. This literally saves lives, our personal actions save lives.

I‘ll try to update these estimates every week. Once the numbers equal out, it should mean that the situation is getting stabilized.

Reference:

¹ https://www.who.int/dg/speeches/detail/who-director-general-s-opening-remarks-at-the-media-briefing-on-covid-19---3-march-2020

² https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

³ https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/transcripts/who-audio-script-ncov-rresser-unog-29jan2020.pdf?sfvrsn=a7158807_4

Numbers (Cases, mortality rate, 4%, 8%):

China — 80,894–3,237–80,925–161,850

Italy — 35,713–2,978–74,450–148,900

Iran — 17,713–1,135–56,750–113,500

Spain — 14,746–638–31,900–63,800

Germany — 12,327–28–1,400–2,800

France — 9,134–264–13,200–26,400

S. Korea — 8,413–84–4,200–8,400

USA — 8,020–125–6,250–12,500

Switzerland — 3,076–33–1,650–3,300

UK — 2,626–104–5,200–10,400